ABSTRACT: [ solar industry is growing fast, copper demand is rising ] the International Energy Agency's paper on the role of key minerals in the clean energy transition notes that solar uses twice as much copper as coal to generate electricity, this is mainly due to the electrical transmission properties of the metal, particularly in underground and submarine power lines, where it is more popular than the widely used aluminum. The huge scale of solar power generation will drive a surge in demand for new grid infrastructure by 2040, according to the IEA. Copper use is likely to rise from 350 kilotons last year to 990 kilotons by 2040.

There have been many reports of a global squeeze on cobalt and lithium, fuelled by the growth of electric vehicles (EV) and large-scale battery storage. But the International Energy Agency's Mineral Supply Chain report highlights the industry's reliance on copper.

The International Energy Agency's paper, the role of key minerals in the clean energy transition, notes that solar uses twice as much copper as coal, largely because of the metal's electricity transmission properties, especially in underground and undersea power lines, where it is more popular than the widely used aluminum. The huge scale of solar power generation will drive a surge in demand for new grid infrastructure by 2040, according to the IEA. Copper use is likely to rise from 350 kilotons last year to 990 kilotons by 2040. According to its more conservative forecast, copper demand will still rise to 800 kilotons in 2040 due to solar-induced demand.

The report examined three solar energy alternatives, including the widespread use of cadmium telluride (CdTe) , thin-film Photovoltaic; perovskite-silicon tandem technology; and Shenhua Gallium (GAAS) panels. If supported by thin film panels again, tellurium demand will grow from 500 tonnes of global demand today to 1.4 kilotons by 2040, supporting the 1.3 kilotons cadmium market and taking a share of the current annual supply of 23 kilotons. The widespread use of ultra efficient Shenhua gallium solar technology will require 3.5 kilotons of gallium by 2040, and the annual market for high grade minerals will be more than 10 times the current annual market, with current production of about 8 kt of arsenic, about a quarter of that. If the commercialization of perovskite and silicon tandem equipment accelerates to disrupt the global solar market, the IEA notes, it may not have much impact on the supply of key materials, but it could increase demand for lead.

About 30 per cent of today's copper is mined in Chile, while Peru, China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo are the other biggest suppliers, in terms of current mainstream solar technology and demand for grid expansion, the IEA said. About 30 per cent of global supply is between five entities: Chile's state-owned Codelco, Angles's BHP Billiton and Angles's Swiss rival Glencore, Freeport McMoRan of Arizona and Mexico's state-owned Southern Copper Corp. . CODELCO has the largest supply, with 8% of the market, according to International Energy Agency Investment in copper production has been growing steadily since 2010 . Although investment in Covid fell from $18 billion in 2019 to $12 billion last year, it plans to diversify production through new deposits in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Indonesia and the United States. The IEA notes that since the average lead-time from discovery to output is about 17 years, more production investment is needed to meet expected demand. 

Source: SMM coloured information