In the near term, the global economic outlook remains uncertain, with the outbreak of a second epidemic in Europe and France's announcement of a second city closure, which is planned to last through November, with the exception of schools and factories remaining open, and restaurants, bars and other non essential places of business closed, people are only allowed to travel for essential work and medical needs. Germany also announced that it would close the city from Nov. 2, requiring the closure of most public businesses and restrictions on personal travel across the country, with most measures already in place to close the city in the spring, except for keeping schools open. There is still the risk of a short-term deterioration of the epidemic, there is no winter vaccine and other solutions, larger-scale closure will lead to a reversal of the economic downward, capital markets will be violent fluctuations. Shanghai copper main contract also showed a small decline.

1.the US election and the European and American epidemics may cause the fourth quarter data not to be optimistic

Turnout in the 2020 US election is set to hit a record high as more than 87m voters cast their ballots early, far more than in the past. The US election will have a big impact on the global economic and political landscape as the two candidates, Biden and Donald Trump, differ widely on their policies, and will thus be a key variable influencing short term capital market movements.

Currently, the deadline for confirmation of ballot papers has been postponed until after 3 November due to a significant increase in the number of ballot papers sent by mail. In Donald Trump's favor, there is a possibility that he will refuse to acknowledge the mailing of ballot papers delivered after November 3rd. However, the Democratic majority chose to vote by mail in advance, and Donald Trump's potential move once it emerged, biden and the Democrats will appeal to the US Supreme Court, where the partisan nature of the justices'decisions has added to the uncertainty.

Recently, Europe and the United States again surging epidemic hit a new record high one day. Affected by the rapid spread of the epidemic, some parts of the United States have stepped up efforts to control the epidemic, but the federal government has stated that it will not strengthen prevention and control and will no longer focus on preventing the spread of the new coronavirus, instead, the focus will be on developing vaccines and other treatments. The number of new confirmed cases in Europe has exceeded the peak of the first wave of the epidemic, setting a new high for the diagnosis rate.

If this situation worsens and treatments and vaccines fail to make effective progress, economic activity will be severely impacted and may be exacerbated by the volatility of financial markets. Increased trade and investment restrictions and heightened geopolitical uncertainty will undermine the economic recovery.

2.Spot transactions light traders feel strong price

According to SMM spot data on Nov. 2, the spot price of Shanghai electrolytic copper for the month was 170 Yuan/ton to 210 Yuan/ton, with an average price of 190 Yuan/ton, up 35 Yuan/ton from Friday. By the disk prices continued to fall, traders continue to support the mood, the price premium is difficult to get down.

November 1, the overall market trading mood is not high, slightly light trading. In addition to the last week of social inventory data continued to reduce a large number of stocks, Shanghai copper prices all the way down, traders strong price sentiment, shipment will not be strong. In the short-term import price is difficult to repair, the seller seize control of the market discourse, short-term in the fundamental structure of the premise remains unchanged, premium still maintain a firm pattern.

Source: Non-ferrous Metal, EDITOR IN CHIEF: Arthur Waldron, Liang Xueping

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