The development trend and application of copper

    "The growth of copper consumption mainly comes from the scale, density and market share, of which the growth of scale comes from the further expansion of industrialization and urbanization, the increase of density comes from the security, green development, energy efficiency improvement and new technology development, and the increase of market share comes from the increase of copper proportion in material selection and the improvement of per capita living standard."

    (1) The key point of energy-saving work of cable line is to reduce the energy consumption in the use stage. No matter copper cable or aluminum core cable, the energy consumption in the use stage accounts for more than 93% of the energy consumption in the whole life cycle of the cable. Promoting green cable is a measure to reduce the resistance value of cable line and select conductors with higher conductivity.

    (2) The important industrial factors affecting transformer demand * * are power grid investment, followed by industry, construction and traditional power generation, followed by new energy power generation. According to statistics, transformer copper consumption in 2017 was 640000 tons. There is a positive correlation between copper consumption per unit capacity of transformer and transformer with lower loss. Copper transformer contributes to lower comprehensive material consumption and lower environmental impact in raw material acquisition. Aluminum winding is not included in the low carbon evaluation method, nor in the local standards of Shandong Province. Copper winding has higher reliability.

    (3) The copper demand of motors is mainly high-efficiency motors. In 2017, the installed capacity of AC motors in China exceeded 1.2 billion kw, and the annual power consumption accounted for about 60% of the global total power consumption, about 3.8 trillion kW. In 2017, the total output of the motor industry was 401.68 million KW, of which the output of small and medium-sized motors was 196.05 million KW. In terms of energy efficiency level, the output of small and medium-sized three-phase asynchronous motors in 2017 was 147.04 million kilowatts, of which 107.24 million kilowatts were high-efficiency motors of grade 3 and above, accounting for 72.93% of the total output, an increase of 5.5 percentage points compared with 2016. Since the release of "energy efficiency limits and energy efficiency grades for small and medium-sized three-phase stepping motors" in 2012, the promotion speed of high-efficiency Motors has been accelerated, but the proportion is still small. Higher purchase cost is the main factor hindering the promotion of high efficiency motor in China.

    (4) For air source heat pump, coal to electricity is the main force. The consumption of copper per household is about 3 kg for coal to gas and 35 kg for coal to electricity.

Overview of China cable Market Research Report

    International Copper Association wire and cable project manager:

    In 2017, the total consumption of power cable conductors was 3.09 million tons, with an annual growth rate of 2.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%. From the change of market share, the proportion of copper conductor increased by 0.3%, aluminum conductor remained unchanged, and aluminum alloy decreased by 0.3%. In 2017, the conductor consumption of low, medium and high voltage power cables was 176.6, 123.6 and 98 thousand tons, accounting for 56.97%, 39.87% and 3.16% respectively. Aluminum conductor is the main conductor of overhead insulated cable, and a small amount of copper conductor is used in overhead insulated cable, which is about 79000 tons, accounting for 4.2% of total overhead insulated cable. In 2017, the number of low-voltage bus duct enterprises was about 1209, with low market concentration. The top 16 enterprises only accounted for 16.49% of the market share. In 2017, the low-voltage bus duct conductor consumption was 432000 tons, of which the copper conductor was 404200 tons, accounting for 94% of the total. Under the background of low-cost demand, the consumption of aluminum bus duct increased year by year. The high growth stage of state grid investment may be coming to an end. The construction of transmission network slows down, and the transformation of rural power grid slows down. Three types and two networks are investment hotspots. In 2018, the consumption of copper conductor accounted for 90%, which is still the conductor material of power cable of State Grid. Supervision promotes industry reshuffle, and the survival space of some cable manufacturers is squeezed. Copper conductor consumption = copper density * residential completed area, conductor density per unit area increased, building copper density was 0.34 kg / m2 in 2016. With the increase of unit copper density, the decrease of new building area does not necessarily lead to the decrease of conductor consumption. The trend of intelligent building and traffic electricity gasification may drive the continuous growth of copper demand.

    Copper demand for upgrading medium and small motors in China

    Huang Jian, National Research Center for small and medium sized motor and system engineering technology

    According to the output statistics of about 76 small and medium-sized motor industry associations, the total output of small and medium-sized motors in 2018 will reach 2108.8 million KW, and the annual demand will be about 210000 tons based on the copper consumption of about 1kg / kW. The actual demand of the whole industry is about 300000 tons. The electric energy consumption of small and medium-sized motors accounts for more than 50% of the total social power generation and more than 75% of the total industrial power consumption;

    In recent years, small and medium-sized motor products still focus on "high efficiency, lightweight and new materials": 1) in terms of "quantity". With the steady growth of output, the consumption of copper will also increase steadily; with the continuous improvement of efficiency, the demand of cast copper rotor motor will continue to increase. 2) In terms of material: the "high efficiency and lightweight" of the motor puts forward new requirements for the further thinning of the film thickness and further improvement of the conductivity of the electromagnetic wire.

    Development status and construction focus of distribution network opportunities for copper industry

    Yang Weihong, State Grid economic and Technological Research Institute

    The investment scale of 110kV and below has been continuously increased, focusing on solving the problem of weak distribution network. From 2011 to 2017, the accumulated new electricity sales volume was 1.6 trillion kwh, and the new power supply load was 310 million KW. It is estimated that by the end of 2020, the 110 (66) kV substation capacity will reach 1.53-1.69 billion KVA; by the end of 2025, the 110 (66) kV substation capacity will reach 1.92-2.13 billion kVA. It is estimated that by the end of 2020, the 35 kV substation capacity will reach 280-310 million KVA; by the end of 2025, the 35 kV substation capacity will reach 310-350 million KVA. It is estimated that by the end of 2020, the capacity of 10kV distribution transformer will need to be increased by 860000-880000 units, and the new capacity will be 220-230 million KVA. It is estimated that by the end of 2020, the capacity of 10kV distribution transformer will need to be increased by 730000-750000 units, and the new capacity will be 210-220 million KVA.

    Overview of transformer industry in China

    Qu Wanli, Secretary General of transformer branch of China Electrical Appliance Industry Association

    By the end of 2018, China's installed power generation capacity reached 1.9 billion kw, and there were as many as 1000 transformer manufacturers in China. They have fully mastered the manufacturing technology of 500kV AC and 750kV AC transformers, and also have the research and manufacturing capacity of ± 1100 kV DC transmission and 1000 kV UHV AC transmission and transformation equipment. There are 30 enterprises capable of producing 500kV transformers in China, about 50 enterprises can produce 220kV transformers, and about 100 enterprises can produce 110kV transformers. The rest are enterprises under 35kV, and most of them are 10kV enterprises. The types of transformers include UHV AC products, UHVDC transmission products, EHV and below power transformers, distribution transformers, industrial transformers, new energy transformers, traction transformers and intelligent power transformers.

    Development trend: 1. Large capacity, high voltage and high reliability: high voltage transmission has the characteristics of large transmission capacity, long transmission distance, low line loss, low engineering investment, high utilization rate of corridor and strong networking ability. Taking AC transmission as an example, compared with 500kV UHVAC transmission technology, 1000kV UHVAC transmission technology can increase natural transmission power by 3-4 times, reduce corridor width per unit capacity by 50%, increase economic transmission distance by 3 times, and reduce unit capacity cost by 27%. 2. Low loss energy saving type: energy saving and emission reduction has been widely concerned by the society. Distribution transformers should develop products with lower loss to meet the requirements of grade 1 and level 2 specified in gb20052. 3. Intelligent type: for the transformer above 110, the focus is on the development of intelligent transformer with the following functions: measurement, control, measurement, monitoring and protection functions. 4. Environmental friendly. 5. Compact and field assembled (or combined). At present, the state has approved relevant units to carry out the preliminary work of the new "five direct five traffic" UHV project, and the subsequent "one AC four direct" project is under planning and design, with a total investment of more than 300 billion yuan. According to the power development seminar held by China Power Grid in April this year, it is estimated that the total installed power capacity of China will reach 3.4 billion kw by 2030, including 2 billion kw of clean energy power generation, 500 million kw of wind power and 500 million kw of solar power. In 2018, the total bidding capacity of distribution transformers of State Grid is 68.8 million KVA, 306123 sets, and China Southern Power Grid is 16 million KVA, 51400 sets. According to this forecast, the annual demand of distribution transformer will not be lower than the order quantity in 2018.

    Development ideas and investment scale of China's railways

    Hong Yan, director of Economic Management Research Institute of China Railway Economic Planning Research Institute: in 2018, the national railway business mileage was 131000 km, including 29000 km of high-speed railway and 92000 km of electrification mileage, with the electrification rate of 70%. In 2018, the national railway fixed assets investment was 802.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.2%. It is expected that the investment in railway construction will remain stable in the future. By 2020, the national railway mileage will reach 150000 km, including 30000 km of high-speed railway. During the 12th Five Year Plan period, 29800 km of new railway lines will be put into operation, and 30000 km of new lines are expected to be put into operation during the 13th Five Year Plan period.

     According to the national macroeconomic development situation, it is estimated that 25000 km of new railway lines will be put into operation during the 14th five year plan, that is, the scale of the national railway network will reach about 175000 km by 2025, and the scale of the national railway network in the long term should be between 190000 km and 200000 km. From the development level of railway network, the equivalent GDP of the world's major developed countries is about 1.1km/billion US dollars (except Japan and the United Kingdom). China's railway level is equivalent to it, but lags behind the United States and France. Based on the railway network level of 0.9km/billion US dollars in 2025, China's GDP will be about 19 trillion US dollars in 2025, and China's GDP will be in 2030 According to this calculation, the scale of China's railway network should reach more than 170000 km by 2025 and 200000 km by 2030. According to the medium and long term railway network planning (2016 Edition), the national railway infrastructure investment is expected to complete 2.9 trillion yuan during the 13th Five Year Plan period, 2.2 trillion yuan in the 14th Five Year Plan period, and 1.5 trillion yuan in the Tenth Five Year Plan period. (International Copper Association)

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