In terms of global copper supply and demand, the global apparent (three major exchanges'stocks) copper stocks combined only about 300,000 tons, less than the world's weekly consumption, even with the world's largest trackable stealth stockpile, the Shanghai Free Trade Zone has less than a week's worth of copper in stock. According to the International Copper Research Organization, the Global Copper Production Distribution: the Americas accounted for 56% , Asia accounted for 20% , Africa accounted for 11% , Europe accounted for 9% , oceania accounted for 5% . In the global copper demand distribution: Asia accounted for 72% , Europe accounted for 16% , America accounted for 12% , Africa accounted for 1% , oceania accounted for 0.02% .

Since 2020, the global supply and demand of copper have been impacted by the epidemic of new crown pneumonia, but due to the severity of the epidemic in the Americas and Africa, the production of copper ore has declined, while the epidemic in Asia, the main region of demand, has been well controlled, in particular, the epidemic situation in China, which accounts for nearly 50% of global copper demand, has been effectively controlled and the impact on the demand side is relatively limited, resulting in the fact that the impact of the new pneumonia epidemic on the supply is far greater than the demand, this has resulted in a full-year shortage in the market, but if the global economic policy in the second quarter falls short of expectations and the positive factors of high potential growth in consumption, such as new energy and new infrastructure, fail to materialize, the Non-ferrous metal's upward trend price potential will also be limited, as the cyclical industry is difficult to reverse the economic cycle. According to ICSG data, global copper production in 2020 is down 1.8 percent year on year, and 20 million tons in 2020, down 1.8 percent year on year, the drop in output was mainly due to the impact of the outbreak on production and transport in the main mining areas. The supply gap for 2020 was as high as 1.391 million tons, according to the Non-ferrous metal, another authority, due to the ongoing disturbance of copper supply in South America and the significant reduction of smelting activities by smelting enterprises under the pressure of both the disturbance of the epidemic and low profits, according to satellite monitoring data on copper plants, industrial activities were suppressed due to the blockade of a large-scale epidemic, global copper smelting activity fell in January, with Europe's January index falling to 41.3 from 59.9 the previous month, while North America remained subdued, falling to 33.2 from 33.6 in December. The index for China, the world's largest producer of refined copper, fell to 50.3 from 55.5 in January, in a sign of the industry's willingness to start work and poor margins.

According to the data, spot sales of copper concentrates in China actually fell to around $33.50 a tonne in 2021, a level even lower than the average cost of smelting for Chinese smelters, as a result, Chinese smelters will continue to face profit pressure from concentrate processing fees and by-product prices. At present, the supply of raw materials in the copper market is still in a very tight situation, the expected recovery of copper concentrate processing fees has not occurred, and the spot processing fees have not been able to break through the $50/ton mark, there is a certain distance between the 2021 copper concentrate processing fee and the break-even point of some copper smelters, and the spot supply of copper concentrates in the first half of 2021 will continue to be tight, as the base effect 2021 global copper production growth will climb to around 7% , the global copper concentrate will be in tight balance, 2021 is expected to grow by nearly 4% , global electrolytic copper production growth rate of nearly 3% , the easing of supply bottlenecks will still depend on the upward trend in copper prices and the release of global production from copper concentrate projects. In fact, in the overall supply of raw materials for the copper industry chain, the proportion of copper concentrate in the raw materials for refining copper is over 80% , while China, as the largest producer and seller of refined copper, mainly relies on foreign imports for raw materials for copper smelting enterprises, however, in recent years, China's smelting capacity has been expanding rapidly, which makes the processing cost of imported copper concentrates low, and Chinese smelters continue to face the dilemma of "tight raw material profit" . According to industry research, the break-even point of processing fees for Chinese copper smelters is around $60-65/ton after taking into account cash costs, but the spot processing fees for 2020-2021 for 2021 concentrate remain below this break-even point, has Caused the smelter profit and the fund flow to have the big pressure. In the longer term, the structural transformation of China's economy faces five major threats: Insufficient self-sufficiency in resources, declining economic growth, excess processing capacity, geopolitical confrontation, and lack of innovative technologies, at the same time, the manufacturing industry is in the period of structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading. In the rare historical changes in the current century, China has encountered a complicated situation of intensifying geopolitical conflicts and industrial restructuring and upgrading and transformation, and under the pattern of the new round of scientific and technological innovation and the arms race in the advanced manufacturing industry initiated by various countries in the world, the real industries represented by the Non-ferrous metal must grasp resources, eliminate surplus, adjust the structure, stabilize domestic demand, promote innovation, speed up the pace of industrial upgrading, and seek breakthrough opportunities in a century of change, holding on to overseas supplies and domestic consumption is a top priority.

In addition, in recent years, copper scrap import policy tightened, making the supply of copper has been a certain disturbance. Due to the supply of copper scrap materials, environmental pressure, financial pressure, domestic small and medium-sized crude refineries are constantly faced with closure and production reduction problems, especially private small and medium-sized crude refineries. Large crude refinery operating rate is also difficult to see an increase, the current supply of crude copper continued to be tight. Affected by the supply of overseas crude refineries, the import of crude copper during the year-on-year significant reduction. In addition, the adjustment of import policy may cause supply disturbance in the short term, but it will basically meet the demand of copper scrap producers in the medium and long term, and to some extent affect the processing cost of copper concentrate and the price difference between refined and waste. Against the background of tight global supply of copper concentrates in the 2021, scrap copper is bound to become an important source to supplement the output gap of mineral copper. However, in recent years, China's imports of scrap copper have been subject to increasing policy and quota restrictions, as a result of the increased demand for raw materials for overseas copper mines, the 2021 is expected to change its policy on importing recycled copper to ease the pressure on Chinese copper mills from tight production of raw copper concentrates and insufficient profits. 

Source: Easy Mine Information

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